In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russian territory, catching Moscow off guard and prompting analysts to predict a potential game-changer in the war’s next phase.
Over recent weeks, Russia has witnessed a sharp increase in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) conducting attacks on various regions, including western, central, and southern Russian territories, as well as the capital, Moscow, and Russian-occupied Crimea.
While Ukraine continues its counteroffensive to reclaim its occupied southern and eastern regions and disrupt Russia’s “land-bridge” to Crimea, the strategic use of drones against Russian soil underscores a new dimension of Ukraine’s military tactics.
Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, remarked, “The war is coming home to Russia.” He added, “Ukraine is demonstrating that it can make life very difficult for Russia, Russians, and Putin,” suggesting that the ongoing invasion has made Russia and Crimea less secure for Russian forces.
The intensity of aerial assaults has surged in recent days, with multiple regions in Russia reporting drone attacks. In a significant development, on Wednesday morning, at least six Russian regions reported attempted drone attacks, one of which caused damage to four military transport planes at a northwestern Russian airfield.
More attacks followed overnight on Thursday, with drones being shot down in the Moscow area and the Bryansk region bordering Ukraine. The attacks have disrupted multiple flights at targeted airports, causing cancellations and delays.
While Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out the recent drone attacks, Ukraine has remained silent about these and previous assaults. Nonetheless, UAVs have become a pivotal weapon in both nations’ arsenals.
During the 19-month-long conflict, Ukraine has endured thousands of Russian drone attacks, impacting its energy, defense, and civilian infrastructure. Russia, in recent months, has also faced a surge in drone assaults, targeting military bases, airfields, fuel depots, and even neighborhoods in Moscow. Experts believe that Ukrainian forces are behind attempts to attack Russian territory and may receive support from disaffected anti-war Russians at times.
The drone attacks have posed military and political challenges for Moscow, compelling the redistribution of air defense resources deeper into Russian territory, including Moscow and internationally recognized regions. Kirill Shamiev, a Russian political scientist, stated that this reallocation might reduce the effectiveness of defenses on the frontlines against Ukrainian forces.
While drone attacks have not yet significantly affected Russian society, the situation could change if they continue to target elite neighborhoods in Moscow where Putin’s allies and associates reside.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently announced plans to increase drone production significantly, manufacturing UAVs with various ranges and purposes. Experts predict that as Ukraine expands its domestic drone production, drone attacks on Russian territory are likely to intensify further, potentially altering the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
CNBC has reached out to the Kremlin for a response to these developments and is awaiting an official statement.
Disclaimer: The views, suggestions, and opinions expressed here are the sole responsibility of the experts. No Report Blitz journalist was involved in the writing and production of this article.